Diesel Economics 200: 40% Take Rate for 2010
A new analysis by The Diesel Driver shows a growing preference for diesel-powered cars compared to petrol-powered equivalent models
The 
Diesel Driver recently obtained detailed sales data from Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, the four companies that currently offer diesel-powered passenger vehicles in the U.S. The data cover the first six months of 2010 and show that diesel sales continue to increase substantially. Indeed, if the trend holds, over 40% of buyers of cars for which there are diesel- and petrol-powered equivalent models will choose the diesel in 2010.
In Diesel Economics 102, we looked at 2009 figures for diesel sales versus comparable petrol-powered models as well as at select figures for 2010 models.
Given the fact that the diesel market in the United States, for all intents and purposes, was virtually non-existent a few years ago, the fact that 30% of all buyers chose a diesel variant in 2009 (versus the petrol equivalent) was noteworthy.
The new figures portend an even more interesting story for diesel in 2010.
The 2010 sales data show that two diesel models consistently outsold their petrol variant, 
namely the Audi A3 TDI and the Volkswagen Jetta Sportwagen TDI. While the Audi oil burner barely edged out the gasoline model, with sales of 1546 cars versus 1478, the Jetta Sportwagen TDI, with sales of 10,314, outsold the non-diesel by more than 5 to 1.
In the aggregate, for the first half of 2010, 36% of buyers overall chose a diesel over the equivalent petrol variant
Some diesel models outsold their petrol equivalents in specific months. In April 2010, for example, the BMW 335d outsold the 335i by a ratio of 6 to 5. In May 2010, the BMW X5 xDrive35d outsold the X5 xDrive30i by a ratio of 6 to 1. The 335d outsold the 335i again in June, this time by a ratio of 7 to 5.
In January, the Volkswagen Touareg TDI outsold the petrol Touareg by a ratio of 8 to 7.
Audi was the leader in the percentage of buyers choosing a diesel over the petrol variant: for the first six months of 2010, 46% of A3 and Q7 buyers chose the diesel, for a total of 2600 cars.
In terms of pure volume, however, Volkswagen was the clear winner: VW sold 23,294 diesel-powered passenger cars during the same period – almost three times as many as Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz combined. 37% of Volkswagen buyers chose a diesel over the equivalent petrol-powered vehicle.
BMW came in second in volume, with sales of 4,682 diesel-powered cars, with 37% of BMW buyers choosing a diesel.
In fourth place was Mercedes-Benz, the company that introduced the first passenger diesel car in 1936. Mercedes sold 1,375 diesels during the first six months of 2010; 18% of buyers chose a diesel over the petrol equivalent.
More new diesel models are on the way. Mercedes-Benz, which currently only offers sport-utility vehicles with diesel engines, will begin to offer an E-Class diesel sedan in September. In addition, BMW has announced it will add two more diesel models to its line-up, including a 5er Series diesel, by mid 2011. By 2014, according to Jim O’Donnell, president of BMW of North America, “10 to 20 percent of our mix will be diesels.”
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[...] Originally Posted by Skoorbmax I'll believe it when I see it. Reason: There is only one manufacturer selling diesel cars in the US now (VW) and not many of them. Interesting reading on diesel cars in the USA. Diesel Economics 200: 40% Take Rate for 2010 – The Diesel Driver [...]
Another very good analysis, Jonathan. Thanks for taking the time to prepare it.
It does raise some questions, though, around what actually drove the excellent sales numbers for the diesel-engined BMW models.
The drivers for diesel sales in Europe are well understood. In Europe, gasoline is expensive, depreciation on larger-engined gasoline models is significantly higher than that of the equivalent smaller-engined cars and the tax systems (road and car tax plus personal taxes for those with company vehicles) tend to be favorable to diesel-engined vehicles as they are focused on C02 emissions.
None of these are true for the US market and here BMW’s sales have, to a great extent, probably been driven by a couple of different factors. Most obviously, the impact of the eco credit will almost certainly have skewed the data, as will the impending replacement of the X5 where the diesel model was the least impacted by the LCI and thus still a reasonably safe buy as the pre-LCI sales came to a close whereas anyone buying a pre-LCI gasoline-engined X5 had more incentive to wait for the refreshed model).
The question is whether these sales will continue without the distortion caused by the eco credit. Until we see sales numbers like those for the first half of 2010 when the sales playing field is level (i.e. there’s no very material sales incentive specific to only the diesel) I’m not sure we can say that the market has truly changed as it could be that in the case of BMW at least buyers simply made the most sensible choice in light of the credits available.
In the case of the X5, another factor could have been the clear superiority of the X5xDrive35d over the pre-LCI 3 liter gasoline engine (and in some respects the V8 too) which has been largely eradicated by the new turbocharged engines in the xDrive35i and 50i.
With this in mind, is BMW shooting itself in the foot by taking away the marketing support and incentives? I’m not sure that the diesel/gasoline sales split will persist into the 2nd half of the year without the marketing support. BMW perhaps may have been better advised to continue the credit into the 2nd half and then phase it out rather than pull it. BMW is now promoting the federal tax credits ($900 and $1800) but these aren’t available on leases, and a significant number of BMW’s are leased.
Will be interesting to see how the numbers stack up in the second half of the year.
These TDi engines have changed how d system worked in the past….silent and more power
In my case, the 335d was close to the perfect car for me. I am in sales and wanted a 4 dr sedan that was up-scale, but also wanted sportiness, performance, and good fuel mileage. I work for an environmental company and also wanted a car that had some green credibility.
I am not a big fan of hybrid technology, and after having a diesel pickup for several years understood the advantages (fuel mileage, torque) and disadvantages (fuel can be hard to find sometimes) of a diesel vehicle. The advantages far outweigh the disadvantages especially with phone apps that guide you right to stations with diesel.
I travel around the southwest for work, and love driving the 335d. I love the exclusivity and it’s a good way to meet people when someone sees you filling a BMW with diesel. I’ve gotten some pretty good comments in service stations. I love the fuel mileage I get with this car also.
Yup, 40mpg on the last 500 mile road trip and I only have 3000 miles on the car so hoping for even better mpg if I can keep my foot off of the accelerator. It’s like having super car power with 4 cyl mpg and with the $4500 BMW diesel discount and the $950 government tax credit it is quite a good deal.